Navigating Chaos in Uncertain Times

When faced with ambiguity and chaos, we crave safety, but flexibility is the key

Originally posted (February 2o, 2025) Psychology Today https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/the-stories-we-tell/202502/navigating-chaos-in-uncertain-times

Safety is one of our most basic evolutionary needs. When our minds or lives become chaotic, we naturally recoil, and seek to restore a sense of security and stability. We are, after all, creatures of habit. Each day, we engage in the same routines, repetitively. We tend to buy the same foods at the store, cook with the same spices in our meals and even sit in the same spots at the dinner table. When faced with novel situations, we instinctively compare them to known contexts and impose familiar routines to resolve ambiguity (Ersche, 2017).

Habits are deeply rooted in adaptive psychological and physiological functions. We prefer routines because their predictability reduces the cognitive load required for decision-making, allowing daily life to unfold more efficiently. Research suggests that approximately 43% of our daily activities are habitual (Wood & Rünger, 2016). When behaviors are repeated in consistent contexts, the link between situations and actions strengthens. Over time, these habits form neural pathways that, through repetition, become increasingly automatic, enhancing efficiency in routine tasks. Predictability not only boosts productivity but also lowers stress and improves well-being—particularly when the routines involve healthy habits such as regular exercise, balanced nutrition, and sufficient sleep (Leotti, Iyengar, & Ochsner, 2010).

Cognitive Bias and Distortions in the Face of Uncertainty

Humans crave predictability and control so intensely that it is easy to fall prey to the illusion of control, a cognitive bias where people overestimate their ability to influence events that are largely determined by chance or external factors (Langer, 1975). Uncertainty always provokes discomfort, and ambiguity can lead to feeling a loss of control, rising anxiety and increased fear of failure. To mitigate these feelings, individuals may attempt to reassert stronger control over their environment, reinforcing their reliance on habitual behaviors.

While uncertainty can be uncomfortable, clinging too tightly to certainty may lead to overconfidence and cognitive biases. Studies show that individuals with limited knowledge in a particular domain overestimate their competence; their lack of actual expertise hindering their ability to recognize their own limitations. Moreover, those who hold their beliefs with excessive confidence are less likely to seek out new information, consider disconfirming evidence, or entertain alternative perspectives, making them more susceptible to errors in judgment (Kruger & Dunning, 1999).

The need to feel in control can also contribute to a fixed mindset, an embracement of the belief that traits such as intelligence, personality, and talent are innate and unlikely to change through effort or practice. A fixed mindset provides the psychological advantage of stability, by reducing cognitive dissonance in the face of challenges, external judgments, and ambiguity; however, it can also reinforce confirmation bias—the tendency to favor information that aligns with pre-existing beliefs, while disregarding contradictory evidence. A fixed mindset provides a refuge from the ambiguity and uncertainty inherent in life's challenges. By perceiving abilities as unchangeable, individuals can tamp down the anxiety that comes with taking risks or facing the unknown. Avoiding situations where failure is possible, is protective, preserving self-esteem and preventing negative evaluations from others.

Black-and-white thinking, also known as dichotomous or all-or-nothing thinking, and a fixed mindset are interconnected cognitive patterns that influence how individuals perceive themselves and the world. Dichotomous thinking is a cognitive distortion where individuals view situations, other people, or themselves in extreme, absolute terms, without recognizing the nuanced middle ground. Many aspects of reality exist on a continuum, presenting "grey areas" that resist black and white classification. When a person does not acknowledge these grey areas, the resultant rigid thinking can lead to unrealistic expectations and difficulties in relationships, as it is unable to accommodate the true complexities inherent in human reality. Dichotomous thinking and fixed mindset reflect cognitive patterns of rigidity and an aversion to ambiguity. Black-and-white thinking reinforces a fixed mindset by promoting absolute judgments. Other triggers of cognitive rigidity and a desire for control over others include control deprivation, fear, cultural trends, religious influences, and certain personality disorders.

Interestingly, fixed mindsets are interconnected with authoritarianism through a shared emphasis on rigidity, control and resistance to change. This relationship is noted both in the governance styles of such regimes and the psychological tendencies they cultivate in people (Osborne et al., 2023). Authoritarian political systems are characterized by centralized power and limited political options. These governments often suppress dissent, control information, and enforce strict adherence to established norms and ideologies. Their overarching goals are to preserve the existing power structures and prevent challenges to authority. Chaotic situations lead people to feel a loss of personal control. When the world feels like a dangerous place, people cleave toward more authoritarian ideology (Torres-Vega, Ruiz & Moya, 2021), especially those who believe that people should do what they’re told and follow the rules. 

Developing a Growth Mindset

Having a fixed mindset, dichotomous thinking and general intolerance for uncertainty increases fear, stress and anxiety, reduces problem-solving abilities and increases susceptibility to authoritarianism and misinformation (Ranney, Behar & Bartoszek, 2018). Embracing a growth mindset fosters independence, resilience and adaptability, essential traits for managing chaos and healthy coping in unpredictable situations.

Cultivating a growth mindset promotes resilience and adaptability in the face of complexity and uncertainty. Transitioning from a fixed to a growth mindset involves recognizing that abilities and intelligence can be developed through dedication and hard work. Rather than shrinking away from uncertainty, try to consider the ambiguity intentionally. Reflect honestly on what you know and look for the gaps in your beliefs. Learn what you can and apply that knowledge. Accept that some portion of most situations, is unknowable. Allow yourself to find flexibility and freedom in letting go of that over which you have no control. Then get creative in your problem solving, which will concurrently, enhance your resilience and adaptability. Always remember that you have agency.

Strategies to foster a growth mindset include embracing challenges as opportunities for growth, viewing effort as a path to mastery, and being open to learning from criticism and setbacks. Individuals who effectively cope with ambiguity and uncertainty often exhibit certain protective traits including adaptability, tolerance, hardiness, cognitive flexibility and creativity. By shifting focus from proving oneself to improving oneself, individuals can break free from the constraints of a fixed mindset and unlock their full potential.

References

Ersche, K. D., Lim, T. V., Ward, L. H. E., Robbins, T. W., & Stochl, J. (2017). Creature of Habit: A self-report measure of habitual routines and automatic tendencies in everyday life. Personality and Individual Differences, 116, 73-85. doi: 10.1016/j.paid.2017.04.024.

Kruger, J., & Dunning, D. (1999). Unskilled and unaware of it: How difficulties in recognizing one's own incompetence lead to inflated self-assessments. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 77, 6, 1121–1134. https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.77.6.1121

Langer, E. J. (1975). The illusion of control. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 32, 2, 311–328. https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.32.2.311

Leotti, L. A., Iyengar, S. S., & Ochsner, K. N. (2010). Born to choose: The origins and value of the need for control. Trends in Cognitive Sciences, 10, 457-463. doi: 10.1016/j.tics.2010.08.001

Osborne, D., Costello, T.H., Duckitt, J. & Sibley, C.G. (2023). The psychological causes and societal consequences of authoritarianism. Nat Rev Psychol 2, 220–232. https://doi.org/10.1038/s44159-023-00161-4

Ranney R. M., Behar, E. & Bartoszek, G. (2018). Individuals Intolerant of Uncertainty: The Maintenance of Worry and Distress Despite Reduced Uncertainty. Behavior Ther. 50, 3, 489-503. doi: 10.1016/j.beth.2018.08.006.

Torres-Vega L. C., Ruiz J. and Moya M. (2021). Dangerous Worldview and Perceived Sociopolitical Control: Two Mechanisms to Understand Trust in Authoritarian Political Leaders in Economically Threatening Contexts. Front. Psychol. 12, 603116. doi: 10.3389/fpsyg.2021.603116

Wood, W., & Rünger, D. (2016). Psychology of Habit. Annual Review of Psychology, 67, 289–314. doi:10.1146/annurev-psych-122414-033417.